USMonitormedium confidence

United States Risk

United States is on monitor; one more independent signal would move it into a warning band.

34
country risk score
Forecast frame

If signals persist, the cleanest market read is long VIXY over hours to days.

Watch for
  • Geopolitical news flow confirming the aviation signal
  • On-the-ground deterioration from unrest, humanitarian, or hazard feeds

Risk cools if the country loses independent confirmation for 24h and priced-market stress stops widening.

Signal quality
2
signals
2
sources
5
markets

Multiple independent sources matter more than one loud reading. This page is strongest when local signals and priced-market confirmation move together.

Country aviation
9
now
13
base
-31%
delta

Business-jet activity over United States, measured against its observed median baseline.

Market implication cards

5 reads · research only
VIXYLong55%
ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
AEC

Research long VIXY Country signals in United States overlap with volatility hedge.

24hn/a5dn/ahorizonhours to days
  • AEC overlap: Military aircraft 70/100
  • Quote confirmation unavailable; ETI/AEC signal only.
  • military: Military activity 3.0
LMTLong55%
Lockheed Martin
AEC

Research long LMT Country signals in United States overlap with defense prime (f-35, missile defense).

24hn/a5dn/ahorizonweeks to months
  • AEC overlap: Military aircraft 70/100
  • Quote confirmation unavailable; ETI/AEC signal only.
  • military: Military activity 3.0
JETSShort53%
U.S. Global Jets ETF
AEC

Research short / avoid JETS Country signals in United States overlap with airlines and travel.

24hn/a5dn/ahorizondays to weeks
  • AEC overlap: Military aircraft 70/100
  • Quote confirmation unavailable; ETI/AEC signal only.
  • military: Military activity 3.0
RTXLong52%
RTX Corporation
AEC

Research long RTX Country signals in United States overlap with missiles and defense electronics.

24hn/a5dn/ahorizonweeks to months
  • AEC overlap: Military aircraft 70/100
  • Quote confirmation unavailable; ETI/AEC signal only.
  • military: Military activity 3.0
NOCLong51%
Northrop Grumman
AEC

Research long NOC Country signals in United States overlap with long-cycle defense (b-21, space, drones).

24hn/a5dn/ahorizonweeks to months
  • AEC overlap: Military aircraft 70/100
  • Quote confirmation unavailable; ETI/AEC signal only.
  • military: Military activity 3.0

Signal receipts

2 active · live
military29

Military activity 3.0

Weighted state/military aircraft count in latest snapshot

humanitarian5

Relief signal 23

Green forest fire notification in United States