Nigeria is on monitor; stronger confirmation would move it into a warning band.
Leading receipt: Unrest +61%. Niger unrest above trailing baseline · 338 recent events
If signals persist, the cleanest market read is short NGE over days to weeks.
Risk cools if the country loses independent confirmation for 24h and priced-market stress stops widening.
Coverage says what the system could observe; confidence says how many independent evidence families agree. They are deliberately not the same thing.
Business-jet activity over Nigeria, measured against its observed median baseline.
NGE is the cleanest listed country proxy for Nigeria risk repricing.
Research long LMT Country signals in Nigeria overlap with defense prime (f-35, missile defense).
Research long RTX Country signals in Nigeria overlap with missiles and defense electronics.
Research long VIXY Country signals in Nigeria overlap with volatility hedge.
Research long NOC Country signals in Nigeria overlap with long-cycle defense (b-21, space, drones).
Niger unrest above trailing baseline · 338 recent events
africa crisis volume +37% vs 24h avg · region-wide
Parallel-market dollarization vs official rate