NGWarnmedium confidence

Nigeria Risk

Nigeria is on monitor; stronger confirmation would move it into a warning band.

Updated 11/10/2026, 9:09:15 PM · evidence refreshes with the live dashboard
47
country risk score
CountriesDashboard
Current change
+0.0%
business jets · vs baseline

Leading receipt: Relief signal 54. WFP Nigeria External Situation Report, October 2026

Forecast frame

If signals persist, the cleanest market read is short NGE over days to weeks.

Watch for
  • FX, parallel-dollar, or sovereign-spread continuation
  • On-the-ground deterioration from unrest, humanitarian, or hazard feeds

Risk cools if the country loses independent confirmation for 24h and priced-market stress stops widening.

Coverage
2
signals
2
families
94%
ETI feeds
97%
priced

Coverage says what the system could observe; confidence says how many independent evidence families agree. They are deliberately not the same thing.

Country aviation
1
now
1
base
+0%
delta

Business-jet activity over Nigeria, measured against its observed median baseline.

Market implication cards

1 reads · research only
NGEShort23%
Global X MSCI Nigeria ETF
country

NGE is the cleanest listed country proxy for Nigeria risk repricing.

24hn/a5dn/ahorizondays to weeks
  • Relief signal 54: WFP Nigeria External Situation Report, October 2026
  • USDT premium +2.9%: Parallel-market dollarization vs official rate

Evidence receipts

2 active receipts · 2 independent evidence families · live
humanitarian48

Relief signal 54

WFP Nigeria External Situation Report, October 2026

ReliefWeb / GDACS ↗contribution 48/100
crypto7

USDT premium +2.9%

Parallel-market dollarization vs official rate

Yadio / DefiLlama ↗contribution 7/100