Japan is on monitor; stronger confirmation would move it into a warning band.
Leading receipt: Spread Z1.8σ. JP 10Y − US10Y = -216bps
If signals persist, the cleanest market read is long GOLD over weeks to months.
Risk cools if the country loses independent confirmation for 24h and priced-market stress stops widening.
Coverage says what the system could observe; confidence says how many independent evidence families agree. They are deliberately not the same thing.
Business-jet activity over Japan, measured against its observed median baseline.
Research long GOLD Country signals in Japan overlap with gold miner with em operations.
EWJ is the cleanest listed country proxy for Japan risk repricing.
JP 10Y − US10Y = -216bps
Named-jet watchlist match over asia_pacific · region-wide