JPWarnmedium confidence

Japan Risk

Japan is on monitor; stronger confirmation would move it into a warning band.

Updated 11/10/2026, 9:10:17 PM · evidence refreshes with the live dashboard
49
country risk score
CountriesDashboard
Current change
+1.5%
EWJ · 24h

Leading receipt: Spread Z1.9σ. JP 10Y − US10Y = -181bps

Forecast frame

If signals persist, the cleanest market read is long GOLD over weeks to months.

Watch for
  • FX, parallel-dollar, or sovereign-spread continuation
  • On-the-ground deterioration from unrest, humanitarian, or hazard feeds

Risk cools if the country loses independent confirmation for 24h and priced-market stress stops widening.

Coverage
2
signals
2
families
94%
ETI feeds
97%
priced

Coverage says what the system could observe; confidence says how many independent evidence families agree. They are deliberately not the same thing.

Country aviation
1
now
1
base
+0%
delta

Business-jet activity over Japan, measured against its observed median baseline.

Market implication cards

3 reads · research only
GOLDLong27%
Barrick Gold
AEC

Research long GOLD Country signals in Japan overlap with gold miner with em operations.

24hn/a5dn/ahorizonweeks to months
  • AEC overlap: Yield curve 29/100
  • Quote confirmation unavailable; ETI/AEC signal only.
  • yields: Spread Z1.9σ
NEMLong25%
Newmont
AEC

Research long NEM Country signals in Japan overlap with largest us gold miner.

24hn/a5dn/ahorizonweeks to months
  • AEC overlap: Yield curve 29/100
  • Quote confirmation unavailable; ETI/AEC signal only.
  • yields: Spread Z1.9σ
EWJShort24%
Japan ETF
country

EWJ is the cleanest listed country proxy for Japan risk repricing.

px$91.4824h+1.5%5d-1.5%horizondays to weeks
  • EWJ +1.5% session; priced country ETF context for JP.
  • Spread Z1.9σ: JP 10Y − US10Y = -181bps
  • Relief signal 38: Green earthquake (Magnitude 5.7M, Depth:24.173km) in Japan 09/11/2026 04:52 UTC, 230 thousand in MMI IV.

Evidence receipts

2 active receipts · 2 independent evidence families · live
yields29

Spread Z1.9σ

JP 10Y − US10Y = -181bps

FRED ↗contribution 29/100
humanitarian26

Relief signal 38

Green earthquake (Magnitude 5.7M, Depth:24.173km) in Japan 09/11/2026 04:52 UTC, 230 thousand in MMI IV.

ReliefWeb / GDACS ↗contribution 26/100