UK is in a medium-confidence warning band; watch for priced-market confirmation inside the next 24-72h.
Leading receipt: Unrest +473%. GB unrest above trailing baseline · 19 recent events
If signals persist, the cleanest market read is short JETS over days to weeks.
Risk cools if the country loses independent confirmation for 24h and priced-market stress stops widening.
Coverage says what the system could observe; confidence says how many independent evidence families agree. They are deliberately not the same thing.
Business-jet activity over UK, measured against its observed median baseline.
Research short / avoid JETS Country signals in UK overlap with airlines and travel.
Research long LMT Country signals in UK overlap with defense prime (f-35, missile defense).
Research long RTX Country signals in UK overlap with missiles and defense electronics.
Research long GD Country signals in UK overlap with navy shipbuilding + defense it.
Research long NOC Country signals in UK overlap with long-cycle defense (b-21, space, drones).
GB unrest above trailing baseline · 19 recent events
Weighted state/military aircraft count in latest snapshot
GB 10Y − US10Y = -3bps