Spain is on monitor; stronger confirmation would move it into a warning band.
Leading receipt: Unrest +57%. ES unrest above trailing baseline · 190 recent events
If signals persist, the cleanest market read is long GOLD over weeks to months.
Risk cools if the country loses independent confirmation for 24h and priced-market stress stops widening.
Coverage says what the system could observe; confidence says how many independent evidence families agree. They are deliberately not the same thing.
Business-jet activity over Spain, measured against its observed median baseline.
Research long GOLD Country signals in Spain overlap with gold miner with em operations.
EWP is the cleanest listed country proxy for Spain risk repricing.
ES unrest above trailing baseline · 190 recent events
ES 10Y − US10Y = -141bps