Egypt is on monitor; stronger confirmation would move it into a warning band.
Leading receipt: firms hazard. NASA FIRMS active fire detections (global total at least 5,000; row cap reached): Africa
If signals persist, the cleanest market read is short EGPT over days to weeks.
Risk cools if the country loses independent confirmation for 24h and priced-market stress stops widening.
Coverage says what the system could observe; confidence says how many independent evidence families agree. They are deliberately not the same thing.
Business-jet activity over Egypt, measured against its observed median baseline.
EGPT is the cleanest listed country proxy for Egypt risk repricing.
Research long LMT Country signals in Egypt overlap with defense prime (f-35, missile defense).
Research long RTX Country signals in Egypt overlap with missiles and defense electronics.
Research long VIXY Country signals in Egypt overlap with volatility hedge.
Research long NOC Country signals in Egypt overlap with long-cycle defense (b-21, space, drones).
NASA FIRMS active fire detections (global total at least 5,000; row cap reached): Africa
Egypt unrest above trailing baseline · 533 recent events
africa crisis volume +37% vs 24h avg · region-wide