DEWarnmedium confidence

Germany Risk

Germany is on monitor; stronger confirmation would move it into a warning band.

Updated 11/11/2026, 10:57:52 PM · evidence refreshes with the live dashboard
49
country risk score
CountriesDashboard
Current change
+0.0%
EWG · 24h

Leading receipt: Spread Z2.5σ. DE 10Y − US10Y = -141bps

Forecast frame

If signals persist, the cleanest market read is short EEM over days to weeks.

Watch for
  • FX, parallel-dollar, or sovereign-spread continuation

Risk cools if the country loses independent confirmation for 24h and priced-market stress stops widening.

Coverage
2
signals
2
families
100%
ETI feeds
97%
priced

Coverage says what the system could observe; confidence says how many independent evidence families agree. They are deliberately not the same thing.

Country aviation
1
now
2
base
-50%
delta

Business-jet activity over Germany, measured against its observed median baseline.

Market implication cards

3 reads · research only
EEMShort46%
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF
AEC

Research short / avoid EEM Country signals in Germany overlap with emerging markets.

24hn/a5dn/ahorizondays to weeks
  • AEC overlap: FX volatility 72/100
  • Quote confirmation unavailable; ETI/AEC signal only.
  • yields: Spread Z2.5σ
GOLDLong36%
Barrick Gold
AEC

Research long GOLD Country signals in Germany overlap with gold miner with em operations.

24hn/a5dn/ahorizonweeks to months
  • AEC overlap: FX volatility 72/100
  • AEC overlap: Yield curve 35/100
  • Quote confirmation unavailable; ETI/AEC signal only.
EWGShort24%
Germany ETF
country

EWG is the cleanest listed country proxy for Germany risk repricing.

px$42.9524h+0.0%5d+2.1%horizondays to weeks
  • EWG +0.0% session; priced country ETF context for DE.
  • Spread Z2.5σ: DE 10Y − US10Y = -141bps
  • EUR weak: Z30d 1.42σ · +0.8% 24h

Evidence receipts

2 active receipts · 2 independent evidence families · live
yields50

Spread Z2.5σ

DE 10Y − US10Y = -141bps

FRED ↗contribution 50/100