ARWarnmedium confidence

Argentina Risk

Argentina is on monitor; stronger confirmation would move it into a warning band.

Updated 9/11/2026, 11:58:18 AM · evidence refreshes with the live dashboard
49
country risk score
CountriesDashboard
Current change
+1.1%
ARGT · 24h

Leading receipt: Unrest +160%. Argentina unrest above trailing baseline · 295 recent events

Forecast frame

If signals persist, the cleanest market read is short ARGT over days to weeks.

Watch for
  • FX, parallel-dollar, or sovereign-spread continuation
  • On-the-ground deterioration from unrest, humanitarian, or hazard feeds

Risk cools if the country loses independent confirmation for 24h and priced-market stress stops widening.

Coverage
2
signals
2
families
91%
ETI feeds
97%
priced

Coverage says what the system could observe; confidence says how many independent evidence families agree. They are deliberately not the same thing.

Country aviation
1
now
1
base
+0%
delta

Business-jet activity over Argentina, measured against its observed median baseline.

Market implication cards

1 reads · research only
ARGTShort24%
Argentina ETF
country

ARGT is the cleanest listed country proxy for Argentina risk repricing.

px$96.8824h+1.1%5d+0.1%horizondays to weeks
  • ARGT +1.1% session; priced country ETF context for AR.
  • Unrest +160%: Argentina unrest above trailing baseline · 295 recent events
  • USDT premium +5.4%: Parallel-market dollarization vs official rate

Evidence receipts

2 active receipts · 2 independent evidence families · live
acled100

Unrest +160%

Argentina unrest above trailing baseline · 295 recent events

GDELT Events 2.0 ↗contribution 100/100
crypto26

USDT premium +5.4%

Parallel-market dollarization vs official rate

Yadio / DefiLlama ↗contribution 26/100